2026 Predictions: Consolidation, Tentpoles, and the Future of Licensing
What if 2026 could be the most transformative year in licensing history? Between potential mega-mergers reshaping the media landscape, an absolutely stacked theatrical lineup, and thousands of talented licensing professionals reinventing themselves, this year is poised to reshape our entire industry.
In the latest Born to License podcast episode, David Born breaks down his predictions for what to watch in 2026—from blockbuster releases to emerging trends that will define the next era of licensing.
The Elephant in the Room: M&A Activity
The Netflix-Warner Bros. Discovery deal is set to dominate headlines throughout 2026. While we probably won't see it finalized this year, the ripple effects are already being felt across the licensing world. This became Born to License's number one podcast episode ever in early December because industry professionals understand exactly what's at stake.
But the question remains: what's next? If this deal goes through, will it trigger a domino effect of consolidation? And more importantly, what does this mean for the licensing professionals caught in the middle?
The Talent Exodus
Hundreds of experienced, brilliant licensing professionals have been laid off, with more expected this year. Will 2026 be the year we see the launch of a raft of independent agencies? Will displaced talent become consultants or find new homes at emerging licensors?
These are the people who will continue to shape the licensing industry, and where they land could fundamentally change the competitive landscape.
The Theatrical Powerhouses of 2026
This year brings one of the biggest theatrical lineups in recent memory. Here's what's driving consumer products:
March: Hoppers - Pixar's 30th animated feature tells an original story about humans hopping into robotic animals. Pixar needs a win, and original IP always has licensing potential if it connects.
April 3: Super Mario Galaxy Movie - After the first Super Mario Bros. movie dominated with over $1.3 billion worldwide, Nintendo and Illumination are going cosmic. Super Mario licensing continues its hot streak, and this will be massive for consumer products.
May 1: The Devil Wears Prada 2 - This isn't your typical kids consumer products program. This is adult property licensing with interesting partnership potential, especially in fashion. With Meryl Streep and Anne Hathaway returning, the nostalgia factor could drive sophisticated brand collaborations.
May 22: The Mandalorian and Grogu - Disney and Lucasfilm are going all in on Star Wars' return to the big screen after seven years. Expect Star Wars products everywhere—licensing teams have been preparing for this for years.
June 5: Masters of the Universe - Mattel is betting big on this one. He-Man is finally back on the big screen, and Mattel's licensing machine is ready to roll. Anyone who attended Mattel's recent summits knows this is a major priority—potentially their biggest play since Barbie.
June 19: Toy Story 5 - This will be unavoidable. After Toy Story 4 made over a billion dollars, Disney is bringing back Woody and Buzz to face off against technology threatening traditional toys. This is licensing gold.
June 26: Supergirl - DC's big bet for 2026 represents their effort to create a Wonder Woman-level female superhero franchise. That S symbol has power and sells well all year round without needing a film release.
July 10: Live Action Moana - With Dwayne Johnson reprising Maui, this has all the ingredients for another Disney licensing juggernaut.
July: Spider-Man: Brand New Day - Spider-Man consumer products always perform well. This is Tom Holland's fourth solo film, and Spider-Man licensing is a sure thing.
November 26: Narnia - The Magician's Nephew - Greta Gerwig is directing Netflix's first ever wide theatrical release before it hits the platform on Christmas Day. C.S. Lewis's Narnia has been dormant for over a decade on the big screen. If Gerwig captures the magic, this could launch a whole new licensing franchise.
December 18: Avengers Doomsday - Marvel product will flood stores at the end of the year. Robert Downey Jr. returns as Dr. Doom, the Russos are back directing, and this is the first Avengers film since Endgame in 2019. Every retailer will want Avengers product for holidays 2026.
The question is: will these theatrical releases continue to be the tentpole moments that drive licensing programs forward, or are we reaching saturation? The prediction: they'll perform, but only the strongest will cut through.
Trends to Track in 2026
AI in Licensing - It's already impacting every industry, and licensing isn't immune. Expect AI tools to change how we create, market, and structure deals. The Disney-OpenAI deal could be a complete game changer.
Characters in Advertising Will Explode - Creative agencies and brands are catching on after phenomenal examples in 2025. Expect this year's Super Bowl to showcase more incredible IP-driven campaigns.
Licensing Goes Mainstream - From Shark Tank to everyday consumers, more people are discovering licensing. The launch of Learn to License makes this knowledge accessible to everyone.
Retailers Desperate for Differentiation - With Amazon, TikTok Shop, and Instagram eating into foot traffic, brick-and-mortar stores need licensing to create experiences and draw customers in.
Nostalgia and Evergreen Brands - Hello Kitty, Care Bears, and Strawberry Shortcake had massive years in 2025. Will this trend continue, or will we hit fatigue? The prediction: nostalgia isn't going anywhere.
The Wildcard - A few years ago, Stitch came out of nowhere and became a phenomenon. What will be the Stitch of 2026?
The Future is Digital
Digital licensing is accelerating. IP owners know they need to be on Roblox, in gaming, and across digital platforms. 2026 will push that even further.
Will we see royalty structures change? While dynamic, performance-based deals are coming, 2026 probably isn't the year—but licensors and licensees will start experimenting.
Public Domain Chaos
Betty Boop, Pluto, and Nancy Drew are all entering public domain this year. How will licensors manage the chaos when anyone thinks they can use characters without a license? As we saw with Mickey Mouse's Steamboat Willie, it's actually very complicated and carries significant risk.
Emerging Markets
Brazil and other emerging markets represent massive growth opportunities in 2026. These are huge populations where licensing is nowhere near as big as it should be.
The Bottom Line
2026 is going to be a year of transformation, consolidation, and opportunity. Whether you're a licensor navigating acquisitions, a licensee chasing tentpoles, or a retailer trying to create in-store magic, this year is going to test us all.
On the Born to License side, the goal is to hit 100 clients by the end of the year, launching thousands of licensed products and bringing fresh blood into the licensing industry.
If you're not doing licensing yet, 2026 is the year to start.
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